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Tesla $100,000 for TSLA in 2030: 3 Models

Warren Redlich
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Tesla share price will reach $100,000 per share by 2030 according to 2 of 3 models.
Under the current Wall Street model of Tesla as a car company, TSLA shares could reach $60,000/share by 2030.
But modeling Tesla as a Robotaxi company, or as a battery company, TSLA should go well over $100,000 per share.
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#Tesla #TSLA #Robotaxi

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31 Ιούλ 2020

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Israel Ramos
Israel Ramos Πριν ώρα
They'd have to figure out solid-state batteries and full sef driving with robotaxis and maybe a world wide subterranean hyperloop.
manuel mercado
manuel mercado Πριν 2 ώρες
I work for tesla and have 50 shares, i love elon and tesla!!
TimeLapseCarGuy Bruno
TimeLapseCarGuy Bruno Πριν 4 ώρες
Great video.. questions..#1 does your analysis take into consideration stock splits? #2 why would Musk say he wants to lower vehicles price recently if he intends to stop selling vehicles in the future? #3 you state Tesla is a battery company.. they aren't producing their own batteries at the moment.. correct?
Mandy Hartley
Mandy Hartley Πριν 6 ώρες
sure make it billion
mG
mG Πριν 9 ώρες
2020-2030 our tech will advance more than from the beginning of civilization to 2019. Tesla will be the ones pushing lots of new tech and advancements, they will help pull the world from oil, they will advance AI, solar, etc. they will help move away from rare earth needs like cobalt. Tesla and Elon gonna blow up this decade. Buying more while still “cheap”
Ray Grant
Ray Grant Πριν 10 ώρες
Most of our sources of electrical energy come from sources that pollute. The more "Power Walls" installed, the less pollution. Plus, the demand will be very high. Everyone wants to have a lower electric bill. I don't think that Elon Musk will ignore the demand here!
totog87a
totog87a Πριν 10 ώρες
Finally someone with the same insane model as me!
Goran Trtanj
Goran Trtanj Πριν 11 ώρες
100k a share is not unheard of. I dare not daydream being so filthy rich just yet
nick logan
nick logan Πριν 11 ώρες
This is not true because the stock is gonna split 10 times, lol
Chad Surles
Chad Surles Πριν 11 ώρες
There are not enough batteries in the world to produce 10 million cars by 2030 and it takes a long time to build new mines estimates are 10 yrs and the cathode supply chain will hit a wall at around 2025 so unless Elon has some plan to solve this problem maybe at battery day we will find out.
Karsten Küpper
Karsten Küpper Πριν 12 ώρες
Your criticism of Tesla Energy is short-sighted. Tesla plans to give car batteries a second life as a Powerwall. Continue using the battery once the car is no longer usable. Also, Tesla's goal is to accelerate the move to sustainable energy. Not to earn more money. Addressing power generation and silencing the critics of solar peaks (by storing energy in batteries) is an important part of that mission.
Rick Kern
Rick Kern Πριν 12 ώρες
It is obvious that this gentleman went to an Amway meeting in the 80s and believed it. The taxes the cash strapped cities will apply to robotaxis will take a significant chunk out of Tesla. Like Henry Ford, Elon will continue to drive down the price of every market they are in. The Model T decreased in price to less than a third of it's original cost in 20 years.
Talentless Golfer
Talentless Golfer Πριν 13 ώρες
I best buy a few more shares then so I can retire in 2030 and live off selling 4% of my Tesla per year
Ben Codilla
Ben Codilla Πριν 14 ώρες
How do you get the share prices from these analayses? Like how does 30 billion in profit from robo taxi lead to a 4k share price?
Gabe Carvajal
Gabe Carvajal Πριν 14 ώρες
Have you taken into account that demand may falter when people decide its better to robotaxi than own a car?
michelcote
michelcote Πριν 14 ώρες
What is exponential growth at firts is really a S curve. At some point we will see that.
michelcote
michelcote Πριν 15 ώρες
Other car companies wont collapse, Individual Governments will subsidise them.
Patrik Lerntoft
Patrik Lerntoft Πριν 16 ώρες
Who goes to jail for manslaughter if the tesla taxi hits a person?
TDA DIY
TDA DIY Πριν 16 ώρες
the 50% growth definitely has to slow at some point. Demand will fall off once a certain number of millions are on the road. Alot of people are still buying sub $10k used cars. I agree its only going up from here though.
Lost in the World
Lost in the World Πριν 17 ώρες
This gives market CAP 🧢 a new meaning
Chris Topher
Chris Topher Πριν 18 ώρες
On the bright side even if you're half wrong it'll be worth $50k per share. If take half right
Fred John
Fred John Πριν 18 ώρες
Investing in Bitcoin is a lucrative and a big chance to make money nowadays 💸🤑
Sarah Payne
Sarah Payne Πριν 12 ώρες
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Renatã Stojanović
Renatã Stojanović Πριν 12 ώρες
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Noble kyleson Πριν 12 ώρες
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Luiz Martinez Πριν 14 ώρες
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youtzube
youtzube Πριν 18 ώρες
Warren Redlich, you could add to your model share buybacks and investing the profit in other segments. If you compare the price of building a Gigafactory to how much profit you forecast Tesla to generate, they will have huge amounts for share buybacks and other investments.
Shantanu Kushalappa
Shantanu Kushalappa Πριν 19 ώρες
I'm a Tesla bull but come on man a 17 trillion dollar market in ten years. What a joke, please keep realistic expectations.
Nick Rugh
Nick Rugh Πριν 19 ώρες
I think robotaxi is at least 3 years away which would delay your prediction.
Miroslav Handzhiev
Miroslav Handzhiev Πριν 23 ώρες
It is now at 770 P/E. Normal is 10. The share price can reach up to 20$ :D
Németh Ágoston
Németh Ágoston Πριν 23 ώρες
If I add just one extra pushup to my daily routine every week, than by 2030 i am going to do 525 pushups daily. How amazingly strong I am going to be! Wow!
Németh Ágoston
Németh Ágoston Πριν 20 ώρες
@Jeanette Doe Yes, there was some irony there. And I am a TSLA bull as well. The key element that the profit is NOT the main driving force of EM. He thinks the mission statement very seriously. Accelerating the world transition to sustainable energy. In q2 EC it was quite clear: Growth over profit. So by the time, the profit will decline for the sake of affordability as well.
Jeanette Doe
Jeanette Doe Πριν 21 ώρα
This is exactly how it works. In 10 years you will be able to do those pushups and it makes you stronger day-by-day... But I felt the irony in your comment... :D
trampfossil
trampfossil Πριν ημέρα
I hope they split a few times to allow normal people to invest
Xiaoxi Wan
Xiaoxi Wan Πριν ημέρα
Thanks for the analysis, it’s certainly an exciting time. While you did acknowledge that these are “happy path” models, I think they underemphasize the enormity of external risks. Obviously government is one, but even if government got out of the way and FSD became reality, this itself would be an extremely disruptive economic phenomenon, since so much of the world economy is directly or indirectly related to ICE transportation. It can potentially displace a massive number of jobs and cause a sustained depression, which would certainly impact model 2 & 3. Lastly, I think the clarity of your analysis is compromised once you start to get on a soapbox about reducing pollution, etc. It comes off as emotionally fervent and away from a clean and objective financial discussion.
Ivan Rusev
Ivan Rusev Πριν ημέρα
Makes perfect sense to me Warren! Liked and subscribed!
jb jb
jb jb Πριν ημέρα
should we buy nickel vale stock??
Bing Hyong-bae Bang
Bing Hyong-bae Bang Πριν ημέρα
One big flaw in your assumption. You are assuming that the demand for robo taxis is so strong that no matter how many robo taxis there are, the demand will not start to lag. This is a big flaw. Have you been in a taxi? They are nasty. The inside is full of God knows what stains and just yucky. I use taxis as a last result. I will never allow my Tesla be a part of a robo taxi service. Your assumption of limitless demand for robo taxis makes your thesis totally useless.
Andre Noble
Andre Noble Πριν ημέρα
SUMMARY: don’t sell your Tesla Shares
dhincks1
dhincks1 Πριν ημέρα
As a General contractor I already ordered a tri motor long range Cyber with full autopilot. Locked in at the $7,000 price point. Also currently own a LRDM 3 and a share holder. I believe in Tesla.
Andre Noble
Andre Noble Πριν ημέρα
2040 maybe.
Ofer cohen
Ofer cohen Πριν ημέρα
you mean the share price or the car price..
SJ U
SJ U Πριν ημέρα
What did you drink before making this video?
scott tisdale
scott tisdale Πριν ημέρα
Love it. Robotaxis need to happen. I want to retire already!
sweetdragon36067
sweetdragon36067 Πριν ημέρα
I see the stock doing multiple splits, but not hitting that price unless you count multiple splits in the mix. IMHO!
John Montgomery
John Montgomery Πριν ημέρα
What we need is government to lay the ground work to accelerate the transition to sustainables. I fear that your comments on government will cause people to vote for people who profess to be for "small government". These politicians are the ones who subsidise the entrenched powerful corporations like oil and gas and big agriculture. We need new leadership in this country that understands where we need to head in the future. They need to work with smart economists and environmental scientist to create policy that will encourage and reward companies to innovate to make the world a better place while at the same time dissinsentivising the industries that pollute and cause waste.
John Montgomery
John Montgomery Πριν ημέρα
Shouldn't you be reducing your PE multiple as Tesla matures from a growth company to more of a value company in the later years of your model, say after 2025 or so?
Gentry Davidson
Gentry Davidson Πριν ημέρα
Vote with your dollars!!
tootler
tootler Πριν ημέρα
you skipped over the fact that all the batteries in cars will need to be recharged with batteries in a sustainable energy model. that will greatly increase the need for their solar-battery grid system - there isn't enough energy in the grid right now to power all those electric vehicles
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I think you misunderstand the grid. Batteries can be charged at off peak times. Solar and wind will expand as well.
Dan Zafrir
Dan Zafrir Πριν ημέρα
I don’t fully agree with many points but I really like your analysis. Would you consider doing a video on square stock? (SQ$) thanks!
Dan Zafrir
Dan Zafrir Πριν ημέρα
Warren Redlich thanks anyways! I hope you will find time for this channel because I think you have great insight on the market and that’s just from this video! If you ever do put more time to this channel please consider making videos on different companies and stocks. Thanks!
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
Probably not. It’s a little interesting but I don’t know enough about it. I’m so caught up in Elon and I have other things going on in life. It’s possible that I will clear my life of some other activities to free up more time for making videos. But that won’t happen for several months or longer.
Firre Torr
Firre Torr Πριν ημέρα
You are crazy. This used to be undervalued now it's eclipsing a bubble. Time to sell my shares. 😭
Dan Marshall
Dan Marshall Πριν ημέρα
Hi Warren, Just finished watching Jack Rickard's latest (and hopefully not his LAST) video, so you have an impressive opening act. We live in a world of unexpected miracles: every day when the sun comes up it is a miracle; every seed is a miracle waiting to grow and bloom. I am 75 and could not have chosen a more exciting 75 years to have lived. I believe we should live our lives to the fullest, each in his/her own way. For some that's climbing mountains, and for some it is seeing a deeper reality through a spreadsheet and an open mind. In my opinion, that's Elon's most important message. Good job, and keep up the good work. Are you correct? We shall see, and we shall see it together...Subbed and notified.
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I love Jack. Brilliant mind, great style.
Roger Smith
Roger Smith Πριν ημέρα
after about 5 million sold in a year the market will start to saturate, and they will not sell as fast..... That and jumping to 1 million cars in 2021 is a big jump! If they do build 1.5 million in 2021 I will buy more stock!
Roger Smith
Roger Smith Πριν ημέρα
@Warren Redlich Valid point if he is selling everywhere, but places like China are also likely to get a cheaper car thats not going to have the same margin either.
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I don’t know why you see saturation at that level. The global market is very large.
Lounge lizard
Lounge lizard Πριν ημέρα
I agree with you. Especially for those with more than one Tesla, rent them out on Turo or another free rental app. Use them for DoorDash. Drive the hell out of them. An unused EV is a wasted opportunity!
alesssj4
alesssj4 Πριν ημέρα
If you assume Tesla will keep ownership of the robotaxis then chances are they will design a taxi-specific vehicle that serves that purpose and provides better margins. I mean why would a robotaxi look like a 4 door saloon when it can be better than say an LTI (London taxis)
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
Exactly
X Z
X Z Πριν ημέρα
I think TSLA will crash to 200-400 in about a year
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
Buying opportunity
Ørjan Varøy
Ørjan Varøy Πριν ημέρα
You are obviously crazy. Completely insane. But if you are right I will hold a party in your honor on my Yacht that I will be able to buy when the share hits 100.000$ pr stock, and you can hold me to that promise. I hope with every fiber of my being that you are correct, sir! :D
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
Friend of mine said he wants to party on my yacht. My wife doesn’t like boats. I’m more interested in buying a piece of land and building an apocalypse cabin. With a view, of course.
MUSTAFA MELİH KADIOĞLU
MUSTAFA MELİH KADIOĞLU Πριν ημέρα
I can understand yr.high apprescation for Tesla which deserves every praise . But;until that date, there will be huge amount of cars built by huge companies all over the World. Because the EV cars are very simple to produce.There will be no surprise and no difficulty. So;in 2 or 3 years ,the market will be full of competitive cars to Tesla. Summarising an EV car; we see n.2 Electric motors ,plus n.1 Battery Pack and a software..Other parts are very well know by every automaker.And,don't forget that most of the existing big car companies are old producers since 80-100 years ..Thus;there will big fight on the market..
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
They can make EVs but they can’t sell them.
Paul Rogers
Paul Rogers Πριν ημέρα
accept nobody will buy cars once self driving taxis take over. And we will only need so many taxis. Tesla will destroy itself in the way the iphone destroyed the ipod. If you think the government will allow a private company to control public transportation, you are wrong.
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I agree government is the greatest risk.
joshuasy10
joshuasy10 Πριν ημέρα
The concept of a crane picking up your tools and stuff and puting it in a bed is a simplification to what a tradesman needs from a vehicle to unfathomable margins
joshuasy10
joshuasy10 Πριν ημέρα
Of course it's a conservative estimate lol
C.J. Cato
C.J. Cato Πριν ημέρα
People are questioning the model due to the growth rate. But people also aren't considering "surprise upside" events that may happen either. Like a solid state battery breakthrough, etc.
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I’m not sure a battery breakthrough like that is necessary. Batteries will improve but current batteries are already very good.
Nikolay Antipin
Nikolay Antipin Πριν ημέρα
$30K was GROSS profit per car for Robotaxi, P/E can only be calculated on net profit. What % of gross profit will reach the bottom line in your opinion? Maybe 60%, but not 100%.
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I actually think gross profit is close to $50K/year for each robotaxi.
Ryan Yoshimura
Ryan Yoshimura Πριν ημέρα
Is there any stock in the world that is 100k?
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
I don’t see why that question matters. Bigger question is whether there’s some limit on hire big market cap can be or a limit on profits.
Sophie Gist
Sophie Gist Πριν ημέρα
Isn't Berkshire Hathaway around $80k per share?
Rick Ramsowr
Rick Ramsowr Πριν ημέρα
In the end Tesla stock examples will be studied for generations to come
Spy Convention
Spy Convention Πριν ημέρα
EV usage > ICE by 2067. Mark it.
Warren Redlich
Warren Redlich Πριν ημέρα
Much sooner. By 2030.
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